Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-17T00:08:28

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 is currently at Background to Moderate levels, but has risen slightly today (16th) with a peak of 461 pfu at 16/1940 UTC. A further rising trend is likely in the coming few days under coronal hole high speed stream influences, with diurnal flux probably peaking into High levels.

The corresponding electron fluence is now expected to follow a gradual rising trend, with a chance of reaching or exceeding the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, perhaps most likely on Day 3 (19th). REFM output is considered to be a significant over-estimate on Days 2 and 3 (18th and 19th), with recurrence offering a more likely trend and suggesting marginal chance of Active fluence.