Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-17T00:17:14

The diurnal variation in high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently peaking at High levels, with an overnight UTC upward response seen in flux as geomagnetic activity from CH99/+ has eased. This elevated solar wind speed ought to establish a new stable oscillation over the current UTC weekend as it eases further. Persistence from the last rotation is offering a reasonable match for current observations, adding credence to the suggested forecast for fluence. An anticipated CME arrival from the 15/1300UTC filament eruption CME ill result in compression or redistribution of electrons and is largely expected to be around midweek, and this will lower levels of electron activity, as indicated by the lowering probabilities in the forecast table above, and also reflected in the output from the Met Office REF model.