Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-18T00:08:53

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at Moderate levels, having peaked just shy of the High (1000 pfu) alert threshold. A further rising trend is expected in the coming few days given the current elevated to strong wind speeds, with these expected to continue through the next 2 to 3 days. Diurnal flux is likely to peak at High levels.

The corresponding electron fluence is expected to follow a rising trend, with exceedance of the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold becoming likely during the period. The upward trend from MOSWOC REFM is reasonable, although the peak values on Days 2 and 3 (19-20 June) appear to be a significant overestimate, with a peak value near or just above Active most likely.