MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-18T00:08:25
High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at background levels, but may rise to Moderate levels over the next few days due to fast wind influences from CH81 and CH82. This perhaps giving a chance of flux levels reaching High (1000 pfu) levels later in the period.
The corresponding electron fluence is therefore expected to show an upward trend through the period, however on balance will most likely continue below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. This is reflected by current REFM output, which suggests a rise below the Active level on Days 2 and 3 (19-20 May).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-05-18T00:08:25 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |