MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-19T00:03:02
High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at background to moderate levels, but may rise over the next few days due to further coronal hole influences from CH82. This may give a chance of flux levels reaching High (1000 pfu) levels later in the period.
The corresponding electron fluence is expected to show an upward trend through the period, however on balance will most likely continue below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. This is reflected by current REFM output, although this is currently trending too high on day 2 and 3 (20th and 21st).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-05-19T00:03:02 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |