MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-26T00:30:08
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to decline sharply on days 1 and 2 (26 and 27 May) due to potential geomagnetic enhancements, or the speed of a high speed stream which could distort the radiation belts away from GEO orbit. A steady increase towards high (1e3pfu) levels are then expected as the geomagnetic activity subsides, with low confidence for the flux to reach the high threshold. Electron fluence values are likely to follow a downward trend on day 1, then steadily rise as the electron flux increases, but values are unlikely to reach the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-05-26T00:30:08 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |