Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-16T00:35:39

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background to moderate levels. Similar conditions are likely to continue days 1-3 (16th-18th) with the electron belts suppressed due to the influence of a CME and two coronal hole high speed streams that follow. The risk of the electron flux becoming moderate or high increases as the high speed stream begins to weaken into day 4 (19th) allowing the Van Allen radiation belts to recharge themselves. The corresponding electron fluence is therefore also expected to rise later in the period, but it is currently thought that it will remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold at this stage, with the REFM output considered to be a little high with this increase and values closer to recurrence more likely.