MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-10T00:11:18
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at Normal Background levels, and the diurnal pattern in response to CH97/+ now ought to be apparent, i.e. current flux levels are probably already the peak for this feature.
While CH99/+ is a persistent feature, it is much-changed in comparison with the previous rotation, and as such confidence is relatively low. 600km/s fast winds and a Slight Chance of G1 ought to make an impression in flux levels, with these rising to a new equilibrium before midweek UTC, albeit most likely comfortably short of 24-hour integrated Active fluence levels.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-07-10T00:11:18 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |