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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-10T00:11:18

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at Normal Background levels, and the diurnal pattern in response to CH97/+ now ought to be apparent, i.e. current flux levels are probably already the peak for this feature.

While CH99/+ is a persistent feature, it is much-changed in comparison with the previous rotation, and as such confidence is relatively low. 600km/s fast winds and a Slight Chance of G1 ought to make an impression in flux levels, with these rising to a new equilibrium before midweek UTC, albeit most likely comfortably short of 24-hour integrated Active fluence levels. 


 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2022-07-10T00:11:18
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 5% 1%
Day 3 20% 1%
Day 4 20% 1%