MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-11T00:15:18
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at mainly Normal Background levels through the next four days, perhaps with a slightly rising outlook as a result of any influence from what is presumed to be minor coronal hole 87, as seen at STEREO A in recent hours. This is unlikely to prove capable of generating Active electron fluence, and current MOSWOC REFM guidance is accepted in its rising, but comfortably sub-Active 72-hour forecast trend.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-06-11T00:15:18 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |