Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-12T00:08:13

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at mainly background levels through the start of this period. Possible high speed stream influences may give an increase in wind speeds through this period, which could start to cause some minor electron charging. However, geomagnetic response is expected to be limited and as such charging may also be minor. Therefore a slight increasing trend is possible, perhaps reaching moderate levels during the period.

Electron fluence is currently well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. Whilst a rising trend is possible in response to any flux increase, it is unlikely to reach Active during the period. MOSWOC REFM also indicates a slight rising trend well below Active which is considered good guidance.