Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-07T13:27:34

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently High, due to the recent fast wind enhancements. These flux levels are expected to persist for much of the period, but could see brief dropouts from any glancing CME arrivals either later day 1 (7th) or late day 3/day 4 (9th/10th), although these are low confidence. A more likely dropout is expected later on day 4 (10th) with a further CME arrival. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to be Active (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) for much of the period, but with an increasing chance of falling below from late day 2 onward. This is supported by REFM for the next 24 hours, however beyond this period this model currently gives poor guidance due to current conditions not comparing well to the 27-day persistence.