Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-31T00:22:46

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16 at GEO, was at background to moderate levels, with a peak of 243pfu at 30/1540 UTC. A flat trend is expected at first. However, from Day 1 (31st March) confidence becomes low, as the 28th March CME(s) are expected to arrive at Earth, and this is likely to at least temporarily reduce flux levels. Thereafter, some erratic fluctuation is likely, but with a possible eventual rise towards the end of the period.

The 24 hour fluence is likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold for much of the period. REFM is considered to be giving reasonable guidance in the short term with a flat trend, but will not reflect the anticipated CME influences from Day 1 (31st).