MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-01T12:40:28
High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is currently exhibiting a low trend within Background levels, but ought to respond upwards in the period given incumbent and impending high speed streams.
The relevant four-day period from last rotation suffered from pollution from CMEs, so REFM guidance and persistence in general is expected to offer less of a steer than would usually be the case, meaning that confidence is lower than usual.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-03-01T12:40:28 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 1% |