MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-05T13:08:51
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at Normal Background to Moderate levels during the past 24 hours.
The high energy electron flux is expected to be attenuated slightly over the current UTC weekend, the result of geomagnetic activity from CH61 and CH62, followed by possible further influence should the 02 March CME materialise. These features' geomagnetic activity should be waning into the new working week, resulting in a slight rise in fluence, with the risk peaking for the four-day period as a whole, but perhaps most likely remaining below Active even here.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-03-05T13:08:51 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 25% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |