Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-02-03T12:17:02

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at moderate to background levels, but may rise to High (1e3 pfu) levels during its diurnal peak in response to the slightly elevated solar winds. A reduction is likely on day 3 (5th) due to increased geomagnetic activity in association with the arrival of the high speed stream from CH49, before rising towards High levels again on day 4 (6th). The corresponding electron fluence is likely to exhibit a rising trend on days 1, 2 and 4 (3rd, 4th and 6th), but the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) is unlikely to be breached.