Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-05T00:21:11

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at predominately moderate levels, but expected to see peak values continue on a rising trend days 1 and potentially day 2, as solar winds continue to ease and allow the peak radiation belt flux to expand outward to GEO. This will bring a chance of High levels being observed at diurnal peak.   

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but with a gradual rising trend. Whilst likely remaining below the active level, there is a slight chance of it rising above by day 2 (6th). This is supported by REFM, which also has a rising trend, peaking just below Active on day 2 (5th).