Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-12T00:43:52

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has been at background levels. Despite recent solar wind enhancement from the fast wind of CH43, there has been little sign of the electron population increasing as winds ease. There is still a chance of some moderate flux occurring through the period, however it looks likely that levels will remain below the alert level (1000 pfu).   

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is below the Active threshold and expected to persist at this level, although a slight increasing trend is possible. This is supported by REFM, which is currently giving good guidance.