Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-19T00:26:24

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has exceeded the 1e3pfu High level and is expected to continue to breach this value for the next four days, especially during the diurnal maximum. This is in response to the ongoing high speed stream from coronal hole 44.

24-hour integrated fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold, at least for days 1-3 (19th-21st). Though confidence drops markedly with the potential complication of the 16 January CME passing Earth on Thursday 20 January.

The current level of response in high energy electrons is greater than that seen on last rotation in reaction to CH44's predecessor. REFM is considered to be offering good guidance at present, with levels mostly above the 1e8 integrated pfu threshold.