Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-17T12:27:23

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) was at moderate to high levels, with a peak value of 2280 pfu at 16/1910 UTC. Similar levels, and with a rising trend over the next 24 hours or so, are likely to continue for much of the period. However, there is still the low and diminishing possibility of a glancing blow from a weak CME during Day 1 (17 Jan), which could give a temporary suppression in electron levels, although this is low confidence.

The associated 24-hour electron fluence is starting the period just below Active levels, but is likely to reach or exceed Active later on Day 1 (17 Jan). Active levels may then be maintained into Days 2 and 3 (18th and 19th). 

The Met Office REFM output is currently giving reasonable guidance, showing an increasing trend in the fluence levels, with the likelihood of reaching the Active from the second half of Day 1 (17 Jan) and possibly maintaining Active levels for much of the rest of the period.