Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-11T00:13:57

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has been suppressed at Normal Background levels. Decompression of the radiation belts as the fast wind of CH44 eases is likely lead to flux levels at GEO rising later day 1 (11th) and more notably day 2 (12th) onward. However, the level of charging likely to occur during this period is not certain. As such, peaks above the High threshold are possible day 2 onward, although confidence remains low.

The associated 24 hour fluence will start well below the Active level (1e8 integrated pfu), but is likely to rise day 2 (12th) onward in response to the anticipated increased flux. This bringing a slight chance of Active (1e8 integrated pfu) fluence by the end of the period. REFM is showing a rising trend from day 2 (12 Jan), and this is considered good guidance for the expected trend, although peak values may exceed those indicated.