Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-10T00:18:12

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has been suppressed at Normal Background levels. This is likely to continue through Day 1 (10 Jan), then as the HSS wanes and the radiation belts de-compress, a rise is possible from Day 2 (11 Jan) onward. However, the level of charging likely to occur during this period is not certain. As such, peaks above the High threshold are  possible from Day 2 onward, though confidence remains low.

The electron fluence will start well below the Active level (1e8 integrated pfu) on a declining trend. Then an increase is likely from Day 2 onwards, with a chance of reaching Active later in the period. Modelling available to MOSWOC is not felt likely to be particularly  representative in the current set-up, given the non-persistent coronal hole that dominates the geomagnetic forecast. That said, REFM is starting to show a rising trend from day 2 (11 Jan), this is considered good guidance.