Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-02T12:26:46

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at moderate or background levels through 02 January due to the geomagnetic enhancements caused by the high speed stream. Given that the high speed stream is strong, the radiation belts are likely to be distorted, so the GOES16 spacecraft may not be sampling the greatest concentration of electrons on 02 and 03 January. As the solar wind eases through 04 and 05 January, the electron flux is likely to increase as the radiation belts relax into the standard position, with an increasing risk of reaching the high (1e3pfu) threshold.

Electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, but with a rising trend through 04 and 05 January as the electron flux increases.