Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-04T00:27:07

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at Moderate to Background levels, but is expected to exhibit a rising trend through days 1 and 2, as solar winds continue to ease. This will bring a chance of High levels being observed at diurnal peak.   

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but with a gradual rising trend. Whilst likely remaining below the active level, there is a chance of it rising above by the end of day 2 (5th). This is supported by REFM, which also has a rising trend, peaking just below Active on day 2 (5th).