MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-02-09T12:16:45
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) starting at high (1e3pfu) levels is likely to fall sharply on commencement of enhanced geomagnetic activity from the forecast CME. The CME could also distort the radiation belts away from GEO. Following the CME arrival confidence in the behaviour of the electron flux decreases, as this depends on the extent of the post CME shock and how quickly the radiation belts may return to an unperturbed state.
24-hour fluence values are expected to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through day 1, but then decline as the electron flux decreases from day 2 (10 February). The probabilities represent the uncertainty in the level of decline and then the speed of any recovery.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-02-09T12:16:45 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |