MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-12-12T00:19:45
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 are expected to generally be Background to Moderate with just a chance of reaching High (greater than 1000 pfu) at the diurnal maximum.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to persist below the Active level, but with a very slight chance of rising above. This is supported by REFM which maintains fluence levels below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-12-12T00:19:45 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |