Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-12-13T00:33:01

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is expected to generally be Background to Moderate with just a chance of reaching High (greater than 1000 pfu) at first. The arrival of the fast winds of CH34, potentially day 1 (13th), and then CH32 (14th), most likely day 2, has the potential to increase the flux with persistently High flux possible by late day 3 or day 4 (15th or 16th), although confidence is Low.  

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to persist below the Active level day 1 and day 2 (13th and 14th), but with an increasing chance of rising above by the end of day 4 (16th). This is supported by REFM which maintains fluence below the Active threshold.