Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-12-06T00:36:16

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has been varying between Moderate and High levels during the last 24 hours, and is forecast to persist at this level, with a low chance of seeing peak values increase day-to-day. There is also the potential for a dropout in values from any geomagnetic activity due to either the initial fast wind enhancement from CH27/28 or the subsequent low chance of a glancing CME on day 2 (7th). A further dropout in values is then likely towards the end of day 4 with the potential arrival of a further CME, alongside the chance of increased geomagnetic activity from the arrival of the fast wind of CH29.

The associated fluence is likely to rise a little day 1, but is likely to stay below the Active with only a slight chance of rising above. There is some uncertainty with the potential for a day-to-day increase of peak flux levels leading to fluence potentially approaching the Active threshold, however REFM is currently suggesting levels remain below it, in-line with this forecast.