Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-06T00:19:30

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) was at mostly moderate levels in the past 24 hours, with some brief peaks above the high threshold around the diurnal maximum, peak 1.82e3 at 05/1625UTC. Following the recent period of strong solar winds, and with speeds still elevated, a similar pattern is likely on day 1 (6th). Later on day 2 (7th) through to day 4 (9th) some connection with coronal hole 17/+ is likely. This should maintain a risk of exceeding the high threshold on diurnal peaks, perhaps with a slight rising trend through the period.

Corresponding 24 hour electron fluence values are currently below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, but with a gradual increasing trend. An overall increasing trend is likely through the period due to anticipated coronal hole influence, The Active threshold is likely to be breached between days 2 to 4 but there is only low confidence for the timing of this. The Met Office REFM model is considered to be giving reasonable guidance in the overall trend, but is currently over-estimating fluence levels, and may be over-forecasting these levels in the forecast period.