Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-10-30T00:28:14

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at background levels and expected to persist at this or moderate levels for much of the period. The expected arrival of the CME on day 1 (30th) has the potential to inject electrons into the Van Allen radiation belts. As geomagnetic activity resides a little day 2 (31st) onward, this would then likely be observed at GEO, with electron flux potentially increasing to above the alert threshold (1000 pfu) although confidence is low. This giving a chance of reaching the Active fluence threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) day 3 onward (1st). REFM is expected to give reasonably good guidance at first, but doesn't take account of the expected CME arrival on the 30th.