Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-09-30T00:33:28

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at background or moderate levels. During day 1 (30th Sept) there is a slight chance that High (1000 pfu) threshold may temporarily be breached during the diurnal peak. However, the forecast arrival of the CME and increased geomagnetic activity through the later part of day 1 and day 2 (30th/1st) is expected to limit electron flux. A recovery and increase in electron flux is likely to take place during days 3 and 4 (2nd and 3rd).  

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is excepted to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but a rising trend is likely to take place later in the period. Although REFM is providing good guidance in the fact it is not expected the Active threshold to be exceeded, it is unaware of the effects of the CME.