MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-09-23T00:29:26
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is currently at background levels. Potential enhancements later day 1 and 2 (23rd and 24th), and the weak potentially Earth-directed CME on day 1 (23rd), electron populations are currently expected to only moderately rise at times, perhaps reaching high (greater than 1000 pfu) at diurnal peak, but mainly persisting at background to moderate levels.
The associated 24 hour fluence is therefore expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with only a slight chance of rising above. The latest REFM output is considered to provide good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-09-23T00:29:26 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |