Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-10-23T00:26:46

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at very low background levels. The influence of the current high speed stream, from CH13/-, has not been sufficient enough to raise electron flux counts within the radiation belts, probably due to the wrong phi-angle polarity for the time of year (negative is less efficient at disrupting our magnetosphere in the Boreal Autumn). Flux levels rose on the previous rotation, but not above the High (1000 pfu) level, and perhaps there was some preconditioning going on which isn't evident now.

The corresponding electron fluence is currently well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on a steady trend. The REFM model is currently indicating a rising trend in electron fluence over the coming days, probably in response to persistence from the previous rotation. As discussed this is likely overdone and expected to remain well below the threshold through the period.