MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-10-16T00:15:03
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is expected to continue its current diurnal oscillation with a peak in Moderate flux in the immediate term, however confidence in this falls with the possibility of a glancing blow from the 12 October CME and then any possible CH12 influence over the UTC weekend. Levels ought to have stablised into the new working week, and on balance -partly because of a lack of features capable of generated Active fluence on recent rotations - Active fluence is thought to remain relatively unlikely.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-10-16T00:15:03 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |