Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-10-09T00:18:08

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at background levels, but some increase in electron counts would be expected in association with any enhancements to wind speeds under weak coronal hole influences over the next four days, especially from 10th Oct. However, any increase is likely to have limited effect on the current background levels of electron fluence, with just a slight chance of reaching the active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by day 3 (11th). Current REFM data is considered reasonable guidance at this stage, maintaining steady low levels of fluence.