Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-09-09T00:27:46

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 at GEO persisted at generally background levels in the last 24 hours, and is expected to persist at these values until potential enhancement from any arriving CMEs on the 10th. This will bring a slight chance of High values from late day 2 onward (10th), but most likely flux will continue at background to moderate. Further CME arrival is possible on day 4 (12th), likely dropping out flux levels but potential for an increase later in the period.   

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to be below the Active threshold, but with a rising trend later in the period, giving a slight chance of reaching Active day 3 or 4. REFM is currently giving good guidance for background conditions, but only in the absence of any potential CME arrival.