Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-09-10T00:05:21

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 at GEO over the past 24 hours persisted at generally background levels, occasionally peaking at moderate levels, and is expected to persist at these values until potential enhancement from any CMEs arriving today. This could bring a slight chance of High values from day 2 onward (11th), but most likely flux will continue at background to moderate levels. A further CME may arrive during day 3 (12th), potentially dropping out flux levels but with the slight chance for an increase later in the period.   

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, but with a possible increasing trend later in the period, giving a slight chance of reaching Active day 3 or 4. REFM is considered to be giving good guidance in that the forecast fluence remains below the Active threshold.