MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-08-11T00:17:10
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain near Normal Background levels in this period.
While a slight upturn in 24-hour electron fluence is possible in the period, Active fluence is highly unlikely to be attained, as suggested by current REFM and recurrence-persistence model output, with the former suggesting levels below 5e6 for the next few days, and the latter offering less than 5% chance of Active fluence for the whole period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-08-11T00:17:10 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |