Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-09-16T00:33:38

The high energy electron flux, as measured by GOES-16, is expected to continue at background to moderate levels during day 1 (16th), but with a slight chance of exceeding the High (>1000 pfu) during the diurnal peak. A drop out in flux is likely to occur on day 2 (17th) due to the likely increase of geomagnetic activity in association with the potential arrival of the CME. However, an increase in count rates is expected to follow, perhaps reaching high levels by day 4 (19th).   

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, albeit with a rising trend on day 1 (16th) into day 2 (17th), and again later in the period after a probable dip during day the later part of day 2 (17th) and day 3 (18th).