MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-08-17T00:15:56
The high energy electron flux, as measured by GOES-16 at GEO, is mainly at background levels. The solar wind is expected to continue declining to background speeds as it transitions into typical slow wind conditions over the next 24 hours. Consequently no notable increase in electron counts is anticipated with the flux persisting at mainly background levels.
Corresponding electron fluence is therefore expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. This is supported by REFM, although the rising trend shown is currently not expected.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-08-17T00:15:56 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |