MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-08-16T00:11:05
With the solar wind expected to return to a nominal background regime over the next day or so, no significant increase in electron counts is anticipated, with the high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) expected to remain at background to moderate levels.
Corresponding electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, perhaps with a slight rising trend, as indicated by current REFM output.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-08-16T00:11:05 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |