Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-09-15T00:11:09

The high energy electron flux, as measured by GOES-16, has mostly remained at background. The count rate is expected to increase through the period as solar winds ease, but peak values likely remaining at Moderate. A drop out in any observed flux is likely on day 3 (17th) with any CME arrival, however an increase in count rates is expected to follow, perhaps reaching high by the end of the day, or on day 4 (18th). This is low confidence however.

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, albeit with a rising trend possible days 2 to 3 (16th to 17th) as solar winds ease. A similar pattern was observed on the last rotation although the electron count never reached high levels. This trend is also confirmed by the latest REFM output, although Active (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) levels are currently not expected.