Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-09-14T00:11:55

The high energy electron flux, as measured by GOES-16, has mostly remained at background levels, barely reaching moderate levels at the diurnal maximum. A sustained increase in counts is possible from day 2 (15th), perhaps reaching high levels during the diurnal maximum of days 3 and 4 (16th and 17th).

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, albeit with a rising trend on Days 2 to 4 (15th to 17th). A similar pattern was observed on the last rotation although the electron count never reached high levels. This trend is also confirmed by the latest REFM output, though there is considered only a slight chance (20%) that the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) will be breached.