MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-10-14T00:29:24
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at background levels. The recent CME from the 12th has reduced the radiation belts, rather than charging them, hence the chances of reaching an active fluence are now greatly lowered. The upcoming coronal hole is small and weak, so based on this it is unlikely we will see elevated flux and fluence for the next 4 days.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-10-14T00:29:24 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |