MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-10-06T00:25:41
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is expected to currently at mostly background levels, with only brief diurnal rises to Moderate. With no notable enhancements to the solar wind expected, these levels are forecast to persist through the period.
The associated electron fluence is therefore forecast to persist below the Active level through the period, with REFM currently providing good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-10-06T00:25:41 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |