MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-10-08T00:13:07
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently showing a very muted diurnal oscillation within Normal Background levels, and this trend is expected to continue into the UTC weekend in the likely absence of significant coronal holes. Confidence in this continuing falls slightly with the possibility of encountering CH08/+ on Sunday, with a Slight Chance of Active fluence ensuing into the start of the new working week. REFM and the recurrence-persistence model both suggest very muted electron behaviour in the next few days.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-10-08T00:13:07 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |