Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-09-08T00:24:47

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 at GEO has been varying between mainly background to moderate levels, but reaching high (greater than 1000 pfu) at times.  Any increase from coronal hole influence on day 1 (8th) is currently expected to be limited, with current mainly background to Moderate levels persisting until late day 2 (9th) or day 3 (10th). The arrival of any CME is then likely to drop out flux levels for a time, before a re-enhancement is possible later day 3 (10th) or day 4 (11th). Confidence is very low regarding the strength of any increase, but could potentially reach high.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is currently below the Active threshold, and despite some increases in flux, is expected to remain at this level. There is a slight chance of rising above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by the end of the period. REFM is currently giving good guidance for expected background fluence in the absence of any CME arrival that may occur.