Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-07T00:19:46

During this current spell of Elevated to Strong solar winds and an anticipated connection with coronal hole 17/+ maintains an increased risk of exceeding the high threshold, more especially during diurnal peaks, perhaps with a slight rising trend through the period as the Van Allen belts recover.

Corresponding 24 hour electron fluence values are currently below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, but with a rising trend. An overall increasing trend is likely through the period due to anticipated coronal hole influence, The Active threshold wiill probably be breached during Day 2 (8 Nov.) but confidence is low for the timing of this. The Met Office REFM output is considered to be giving reasonable guidance in the overall trend, but is currently over-estimating fluence levels, and may be over-forecasting these levels in the forecast period.