Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-08T00:27:14

The observed high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GEO by GOES-16 is at Moderate to High levels, after the CME arrivals during the previous few days, leading to a period of elevated to strong solar winds. There is the potential for a drop out of values on day 1 (8th), from any geomagnetic activity from the arrival of the weak fast wind from CH17. However this is low confidence. Otherwise, the current high levels are expected to gradually decay, with peak values increasingly likely to be at Moderate levels from day 2 onward (9th)

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is currently Active, but is expected to decline through the period, likely below the Active level by day 2 (9th) onward. This only moderate confidence however, with REFM suggesting fluence levels will be varying around the Active threshold.