Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-14T12:16:11

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at moderate levels with brief peaks of high (above 1000 pfu) on the 13th. These levels are likely to continue with peak values only erratically declining during days 1-3 (14th-16th). On day 4 (17th) the arrival of the fast wind from CH19/- is likely to bring some charging of the radiation belts, with flux levels potentially rising by the end of the day.

The associated 24-hour electron fluence is likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with a gradual declining trend. REFM is currently giving good guidance. Any increase in the fluence levels due to CH19/- is expected after day 4 (17th).