Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-14T00:17:18

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at moderate levels, having peaked briefly at high levels (above 1000 pfu) during the UTC evening. As the wind speed is now at ambient levels, there is unlikely to be further charging and flux levels should slowly decline. On Day 4 (17 Nov) the arrival of the high speed stream from CH19/- is expected, which may lead to some charging of the radiation belts, although any electron response is most likely to occur after the end of this 4 day period.

The associated 24-hour electron fluence is likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with a gradual declining trend. REFM is currently giving good guidance. Any increase in the fluence levels due to CH19/- is expected after Day 4.